QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
The Travelers Companies TRV
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 2% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $325.44−18%
- Market Value
- $395.30at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.17
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $396.22
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$267.66−32.4%
- Fair value est.base case$325.44−17.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 16$395.30−0.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$396.22you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$405.44+2.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 18.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 16.5%; bull = 8.5% and 20.5%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TRV would need a return on equity of about 22% a year; our estimate uses 18%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TRV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.17
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.28
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 7.4% in a year: $6.2B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 9.8× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 28% to $27.43 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 27% over the last 12 months, up 7 points in two years.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $325.44, 18% below the price.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 1% over the last 12 months, from 10% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.8×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 17%, below the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on The Travelers Companies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 9.8 · ROE 27% · Sales +1%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.8×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.66×
- Price / book
- 2.80×
- Market cap
- $81.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $48.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $38.03
- EPS growth, last FY
- +27.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $8.3B
- Net income growth
- +42%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 16.9%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 27%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $766M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.23%$1.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 12%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $6.2B7.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $267M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From The Travelers Companies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $325.44 · MV $395.30
Financials model (residual income): book value $175.94 a share on Sep 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 18.5%, the average of 23.4% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 13.6% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 84% of earnings (dividends 12% + net buybacks 72%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Oct 16, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days −0.5%
The business
FCF $10.7B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$10.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield13.1%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TRV is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.