QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Ryman Hospitality Properties RHP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 8% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $124.44price +8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.52
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 1% below its 52-week high (Jul 28), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +1.6 pts, operating margin +0.7 pts, earnings per share +6.4%.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +1.6 pts, operating margin +0.7 pts, earnings per share +6.4%), others slipped. The price is 1% below its 52-week high.
The price is 1% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($135.99, Jul 28) the price assumed about 15%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($86.91, Oct 31) about 14%; today about 17%. The last 3 years delivered −11%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −11%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $135.99Jul 28 | $86.91Oct 31 | $134.90 |
| Implied growth | +15% | +14% | +17% |
| P/E | 36.7× | 21.8× | 34.2× |
| P/FCF | 30.4× | 28.5× | 33.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for RHP: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 60% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 21% in FY2022), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RHP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.52
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
Valuation details
MV $124.44
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 35% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 37% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.2% ($300M paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales grew 12% to $2.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 22 points in two fiscal years, to 32% in FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.1× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $300M paid vs $272M of net income.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 8.4% above its Market Value of $124.44, the average price paid since the Sep 1 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 34.2 · FCF yield 3.0% · ROE 35%
Valuation
- P/E
- 34.2×Real Estate median 25.9×
- Price / FCF
- 33.9×
- FCF yield
- 3.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.39×
- Price / book
- 12.43×
- Market cap
- $9.3Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.10
- EPS growth, last FY
- −13.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $272M
- Net income growth
- +4%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 43.8%
- Operating margin
- 19.8%
- Net margin
- 9.9%
- FCF margin
- 10.0%
- Return on equity
- 35%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $366M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 2.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $275M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +37%
- Dividend yield
- 3.22%$300M paid
- Payout ratio
- 110%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +4.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $15M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Ryman Hospitality Properties’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin21%
- Gross margin35%
- Operating margin23%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity23%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $134.90
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$86.91−35.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 1$124.44−7.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$134.90you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$135.99+0.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 71 · 5 days +2.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
RHP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ryman Hospitality Properties in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.