QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Home Furnishings
Somnigroup International SGI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 35% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $111.40+75%
- Market Value
- $64.31price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −35%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.44
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $63.56
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$61.49−3.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$63.56you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 26$64.31+1.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$97.99+54.2%
- Fair value est.base case$111.40+75.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SGI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SGI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.44
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.44
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $111.40, 75% above the price.
GrowthSales grew 27% to $7.6B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.7% (price / FCF 17.6×): $769M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 33% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 15% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 84% to $4.6B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 10.1% in FY2025 from 12.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 15% to $1.84 in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 4.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 9 (consensus EPS $1.06): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Somnigroup International in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 25.3 · FCF yield 5.7% · Sales +27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 17.6×
- FCF yield
- 5.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.77×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $13.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +27.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.53
- EPS growth, last FY
- −14.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $533M
- Net income growth
- +99%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 44.2%
- Operating margin
- 12.5%
- Net margin
- 7.0%
- FCF margin
- 10.1%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 3.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $769M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +33%
- Dividend yield
- 1.00%$136M paid
- Payout ratio
- 25%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $45M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From Somnigroup International’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $111.40 · MV $64.31 · FCF value $74.08
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 15.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.62 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −1.7%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales −3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin45%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−3%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.9×
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.06
- Year-ago EPS$0.95
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
SGI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.