QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Home Furnishings
Williams-Sonoma WSM
Not in a dip by our rules: 3% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $179.06−29%
- Market Value
- $235.80price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.12
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $252.72
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$168.64−33.3%
- Fair value est.base case$179.06−29.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 26$235.80−6.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$252.72you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$260.80+3.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WSM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WSM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.12
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.43
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.30
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 55% over the last 12 months, up 8 points in two years.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.8% in a year: $853M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 31% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 46.2% in FY2026 from 42.6% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $179.06, 29% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 25.5× is 24% above its own average of 20.5× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthSales shrank 3% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 2.2% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 7.2% above its Market Value of $235.80, the average price paid since the Aug 26 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Williams-Sonoma in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 25.5 · FCF yield 4.5% · ROE 55%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.5×3-yr-end avg 20.5× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 22.4×
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.75×
- Price / book
- 14.03×
- Market cap
- $30.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.5%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $9.75
- EPS growth, last FY
- +0.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Net income growth
- +5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 47.2%
- Operating margin
- 19.2%
- Net margin
- 14.7%
- FCF margin
- 16.8%
- Return on equity
- 55%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.0B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +31%
- Dividend yield
- 1.12%$336M paid
- Payout ratio
- 28%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $853M2.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $121M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 2, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 2, 2026. From Williams-Sonoma’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $179.06 · MV $235.80 · FCF value $276.67
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -3.5% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.30 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 2, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days +0.1%
The business
FCF $1.3B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin17%
- Gross margin47%
- Operating margin19%
- Return on invested capital57%
- Return on equity57%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18
- Consensus EPS$2.16
- Year-ago EPS$1.96
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when WSM fires a reversal signal
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