QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Machinery & trucks
Terex TEX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $56.24at the price
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.82
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $56.15
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$41.78−25.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$56.15you are here
- Fair value est.base case$56.24+0.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$74.58+32.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.1%; bull = 8.5% and 9.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TEX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TEX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.82
- Volatility
- 49% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.47
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.41
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 40% to $7.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 12.0×, below the 16.6× median for the 96 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.3×, below the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 7.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 4.5% median for the 146 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 332% to $2.6B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.2× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 8.8% in FY2025 from 12.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 19.4% in FY2025 from 22.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Terex in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
All fundamentals
P/E 32.3 · ROE 6% · Sales +40%
Valuation
- P/E
- 32.3×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.0×
- Price / sales
- 0.85×
- Price / book
- 1.29×
- Market cap
- $6.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +40.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.20
- EPS growth, last FY
- −32.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $198M
- Net income growth
- +27%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 17.1%
- Operating margin
- 5.7%
- Net margin
- 2.6%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $407M
- Total debt
- $2.6B
- Net cash
- −$2.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.52×
- Interest coverage
- 2.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.08%$69M paid
- Payout ratio
- 35%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $76M1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $70M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Terex’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $56.24 · FCF value $53.99
Assumes 7.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.82 a share (trailing 12 months to Mar 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed May 1, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days +9.5%
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +58%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin17%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+58%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TEX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.