QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
MSC Industrial Direct Company MSM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $63.72−47%
- Market Value
- $116.97price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.75
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $121.02
- Fair value est.base case$63.72−47.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$81.08−33.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$116.97−3.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$121.02you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$132.82+9.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MSM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MSM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.75
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.9% ($194M paid over 12 months, 87% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 16% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.3×, below the 0.5× median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 41%, above the 35% median for the 114 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $63.72, 47% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 8.0% in FY2026 from 10.2% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividends take 87% of earnings ($194M paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
GrowthSales grew 0.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 4.5% median for the 146 Industrials companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 6.4% over the last 12 months, below the 9.3% median for the 147 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on MSC Industrial Direct Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
P/E 30.4 · FCF yield 3.3% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 30.4×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 30.1×
- FCF yield
- 3.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.0×
- Price / sales
- 1.69×
- Price / book
- 4.75×
- Market cap
- $6.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.98
- EPS growth, last FY
- +11.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $223M
- Net income growth
- +12%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 40.9%
- Operating margin
- 8.0%
- Net margin
- 5.6%
- FCF margin
- 5.6%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 13%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $65M
- Total debt
- $477M
- Net cash
- −$412M
- Debt / equity
- 0.33×
- Interest coverage
- 14.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $225M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −7%
- Dividend yield
- 2.87%$194M paid
- Payout ratio
- 87%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $14M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $19M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 29, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 29, 2026. From MSC Industrial Direct Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $63.72 · MV $116.97 · FCF value $83.31
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.0% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.02 a share (fiscal year to Aug 29, 2026), from the 10-K filed Oct 22, 2026. Net debt $411M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days +6.3%
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin41%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MSM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.