QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Apparel retail
TJX Companies TJX
Not in a dip by our rules: 17% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $101.69−28%
- Market Value
- $135.02price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.10
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $140.31
- Fair value est.base case$101.69−27.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$122.84−12.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 19$135.02−3.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$140.31you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$168.41+20.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.5%; bull = 8.5% and 8.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TJX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TJX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.10
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.09
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 62% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 45% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetNet cash of $3.1B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Aug 1, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.3×, below the 0.9× median for the 119 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $101.69, 28% below the price.
ValuationPrice / book of 14.7×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.7%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 25.8×, above the 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 32%, below the 39% median for the 120 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on TJX Companies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Apparel retail
All fundamentals
P/E 25.8 · FCF yield 3.7% · ROE 62%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.8×3-yr-end avg 28.4× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 26.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.51×
- Price / book
- 14.71×
- Market cap
- $157Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $154B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $62.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.5%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.40
- EPS growth, last FY
- +14.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $6.1B
- Net income growth
- +22%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 32.0%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 9.7%
- FCF margin
- 9.4%
- Return on equity
- 62%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $6.0B
- Total debt
- $2.9B
- Net cash
- $3.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.27×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $5.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +45%
- Dividend yield
- 1.24%$1.9B paid
- Payout ratio
- 32%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.8B1.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $223M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From TJX Companies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $101.69 · MV $135.02 · FCF value $132.64
Assumes 6.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.5% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.26 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 28, 2026. Net cash $3.1B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −3.3%
The business
FCF $5.9B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin32%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital46%
- Return on equity61%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.33
- Year-ago EPS$1.28
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when TJX fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on TJX or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.