QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Apparel retail
Ross Stores ROST
Not in a dip by our rules: 11% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $171.05−25%
- Market Value
- $231.42price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.54
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $228.28
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$158.07−30.8%
- Fair value est.base case$171.05−25.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$228.28you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 20$231.42+1.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$255.23+11.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.8%; bull = 8.5% and 8.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ROST’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ROST moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.54
- Volatility
- 26% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.26
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 74%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 66% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 43% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $1.5B at FY2026, 38% less than at FY2024.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $171.05, 25% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 27.4× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 17.8×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 30%, below the 39% median for the 120 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 10.8×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ross Stores in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Apparel retail
All fundamentals
P/E 27.4 · FCF yield 3.8% · ROE 43%
Valuation
- P/E
- 27.4×3-yr-end avg 26.1× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 26.1×
- FCF yield
- 3.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.8×
- Price / sales
- 2.98×
- Price / book
- 10.81×
- Market cap
- $72.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $69.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $24.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.8%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.7B
- Net income growth
- +29%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 29.7%
- Operating margin
- 13.7%
- Net margin
- 10.8%
- FCF margin
- 11.4%
- Return on equity
- 43%
- Return on invested capital
- 74%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.3B
- Total debt
- $1.0B
- Net cash
- $3.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.15×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.8B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +66%
- Dividend yield
- 0.75%$549M paid
- Payout ratio
- 21%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.2B1.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $198M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From Ross Stores’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $171.05 · MV $231.42 · FCF value $214.59
Assumes 6.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.8% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.73 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 1, 2026. Net cash $3.3B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days −0.4%
The business
FCF $2.8B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital34%
- Return on equity43%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.1×
Next report
Nov 19
- DateThu Nov 19
- Consensus EPS$1.82
- Year-ago EPS$1.58
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ROST fires a reversal signal
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