QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Tobacco
Turning Point Brands TPB
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 54% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 3% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Down 55% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 24%
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $26.89−60%
- Market Value
- $68.52price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −54%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.62
52-week range 13% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $66.48Fair value est. $26.89Market Value $68.52
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 54% below its 52-week high (Feb 25), but the business held up: revenue +16.4%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +16.4%), others slipped (revenue growth rate −29.0 pts, earnings per share −21.1%, free cash flow −49.6%). The price is 54% below its 52-week high.
The price is 54% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −29.0 pts, earnings per share −21.1%, free cash flow −49.6%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$436M → $507M (+16.4%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+53.5% → +24.5% a year (−29.0 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.80 → $2.21 (−21.1%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$39M → $20M (−49.6%)changed
- Operating margin21.4% → 14.8% (−6.6 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding+7.8% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −54%, sector median +2% since Feb 25changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −54%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −21% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 68.6× at the high → 68.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($142.98, Feb 25) the price assumed about 30%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($55.25, Oct 13) about 26%; today about 30%. The last 3 years delivered 25%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 25%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $142.98Feb 25 | $55.25Oct 13 | $66.48 |
| Implied growth | +30% | +26% | +30% |
| P/E | 51.1× | 25.0× | 30.1× |
| P/FCF | 68.6× | 56.7× | 68.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.0%; bull = 8.5% and 15.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TPB’s free cash flow would need to grow about 30% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TPB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.62
- Volatility
- 54% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
How it ranks
Where TPB stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate60% · price above our base caseLowest 8%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield1.5% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 27%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 27%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+24% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 20%of 2,184
- Operating margin15% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 37%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $26.89 · MV $68.52
Assumes 13.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.97 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026. Net debt $26M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 45% to $3.11 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 24% to $507M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 59%, above the 37% median for the 316 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 13% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 5.2% median for the 467 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 3.0% below its Market Value of $68.52, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $26.89, 60% below the price.
Cash returnsShare count up 10.0% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 62% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.7× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
All fundamentals
P/E 30.1 · FCF yield 1.5% · Sales +24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 30.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 68.3×
- FCF yield
- 1.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.64×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $507M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +24.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- +45.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $45M
- Net income growth
- +2%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 59.2%
- Operating margin
- 14.8%
- Net margin
- 8.8%
- FCF margin
- 3.9%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 2.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $20M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −62%
- Dividend yield
- 0.45%$6M paid
- Payout ratio
- 14%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +10.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $9M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From Turning Point Brands’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +23%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin−2%
- Gross margin57%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+23%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $66.48
- Fair value est.base case$26.89−59.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$55.25−16.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$66.48you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$68.52+3.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$142.98+115.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days +1.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.19
- Year-ago EPS$1.13
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
TPB is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Turning Point Brands in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.