QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services
Upbound Group UPBD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 6.8%, top 4% of the 2092 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.00
52-week range at its 52-week high
Price $22.84
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Nov 2), but the business held up: shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($22.84, Nov 2) the price assumed about −26%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($15.36, Oct 6) about −29%; today about −26%. The last 3 years delivered −16%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −16%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $22.84Nov 2 | $15.36Oct 6 | $22.84 |
| Implied growth | −26% | −29% | −26% |
| P/E | 12.1× | 10.0× | 12.1× |
| P/FCF | 3.1× | 2.5× | 3.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for UPBD: the model gives 424% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UPBD’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 26% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UPBD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.00
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
How it ranks
Where UPBD stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield32% · free cash flow vs market capTop 1%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield6.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 16%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+3.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 24%of 2,184
- Operating margin5.5% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 32%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
FCF value $188.87
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 32.3% (price / FCF 3.1×): $434M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 208% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationP/E of 12.1× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.8% ($92M paid over 12 months, 82% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 15% over the last 12 months, up 11 points in two years.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 43% to $1.25 in FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.5× over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew only 3.4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 3.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
TechnicalRSI(14) of 84: overbought after a strong run.
All fundamentals
P/E 12.1 · FCF yield 32.3% · ROE 15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 3.1×
- FCF yield
- 32.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.28×
- Price / book
- 1.79×
- Market cap
- $1.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.90
- EPS growth, last FY
- −43.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $111M
- Net income growth
- +32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 49.7%
- Operating margin
- 5.5%
- Net margin
- 2.4%
- FCF margin
- 9.2%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $125M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 2.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $434M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +208%
- Dividend yield
- 6.83%$92M paid
- Payout ratio
- 82%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $46M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Upbound Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales −2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield32.3%
- Gross margin50%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−2%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $22.84
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$15.36−32.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$22.84you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$22.84at the price
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 84 · 5 days +34.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
UPBD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Upbound Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Diversified Commercial Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.