QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Apparel
Tapestry TPR
In a deep dip: 29% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 3% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $164.69+42%
- Market Value
- $120.05price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −29%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.99
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $116.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$98.81−15.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$116.29you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 13$120.05+3.2%
- Fair value est.base case$164.69+41.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$164.78+41.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.3%; bull = 8.5% and 8.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TPR’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TPR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.99
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $164.69, 42% above the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 82%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.4% (price / FCF 13.5×): $1.8B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 66% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 29% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Balance sheetDebt is 3.4× shareholders’ equity.
ValuationPrice / book of 35.3×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $1.56): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Tapestry in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 16.0 · FCF yield 7.4% · ROE 197%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 13.5×
- FCF yield
- 7.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.4×
- Price / sales
- 3.05×
- Price / book
- 35.32×
- Market cap
- $24.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $25.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 77.8%
- Operating margin
- 23.9%
- Net margin
- 19.1%
- FCF margin
- 22.6%
- Return on equity
- 197%
- Return on invested capital
- 82%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.2B
- Total debt
- $2.4B
- Net cash
- −$1.2B
- Debt / equity
- 3.44×
- Interest coverage
- 16.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.8B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +66%
- Dividend yield
- 1.33%$326M paid
- Payout ratio
- 21%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.6B6.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $104M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Tapestry’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $164.69 · MV $120.05 · FCF value $223.92
Assumes 6.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.3% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.62 a share (fiscal year to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-K filed Aug 13, 2026. Net debt $1.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days +5.4%
The business
FCF $1.8B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin23%
- Gross margin78%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital49%
- Return on equity240%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.56
- Year-ago EPS$1.38
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when TPR fires a reversal signal
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