QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Specialty Foods
Tootsie Roll Industries TR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 15% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $16.92−56%
- Market Value
- $35.71price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.22
0 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 15% below its 52-week high (Apr 9), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +0.4 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +0.4 pts), others slipped (free cash flow −16.8%, operating margin −1.9 pts). The price is 15% below its 52-week high.
The price is 15% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −16.8%, operating margin −1.9 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 6 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$733M → $735M (+0.3%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+1.3% → +1.6% a year (+0.4 pts)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$96M → $80M (−16.8%)changed
- Operating margin13.8% → 11.9% (−1.9 pts)changed
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Staples)stock −15%, sector median +3% since Apr 9about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −15%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −8% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.22
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.24
How it ranks
Where TR stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate56% · price above our base caseLowest 10%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield2.8% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 36%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 31%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+1.6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 18%of 1,814
- Operating margin12% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 49%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $16.92 · MV $35.71 · FCF value $19.76
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.07 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 0 of 5
Nothing in our data makes a clear bull case right now.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $16.92, 56% below the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 24% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew only 2.2% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 7.0% above its Market Value of $35.71, the average price paid since the Oct 22 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 30.0 · FCF yield 2.8% · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 30.0×Consumer Staples median 22.1×
- Price / FCF
- 35.8×
- FCF yield
- 2.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.90×
- Price / book
- 3.01×
- Market cap
- $2.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $735M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $95M
- Net income growth
- +5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 34.5%
- Operating margin
- 11.9%
- Net margin
- 13.0%
- FCF margin
- 10.9%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $141M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $80M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −24%
- Dividend yield
- 0.92%$26M paid
- Payout ratio
- 28%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $4M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Tootsie Roll Industries’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales −1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin34%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−1%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $38.21
- Fair value est.base case$16.92−55.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$34.26−10.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$35.71−6.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$38.21you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$44.81+17.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days +10.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4
- Year-ago EPS$0.48
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
TR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Tootsie Roll Industries in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Staples
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.