QualityDipJC
Jim CramerOct 19 · TV
neutral“I think it's valued correctly. That's the problem. Therefore, I don't see any upside or downside that I can pin anything on.”
Stocks / Technology · Software
TWLO
Twilio TWLO
$205.03−15.24% dayFri Oct 30 close
Dip watch with a setup armed: a close above $206.90 triggers it. 32% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $168.30−18%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −32%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.52
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Fair value est.TriggerStopDrag across the chart to see any day
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $205.03
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$108.49−47.1%
- Fair value est.base case$168.30−17.9%
- Stopreference, not an order$180.00−12.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$205.03you are here
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$206.90+0.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$301.27+46.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.8%; bull = 8.5% and 11.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
$168.30−18% vs price
Price $205.03
Bear$129.67
Base$168.30
Bull$224.72
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TWLO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TWLO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
High
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.52
- Volatility
- 66% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.29
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.32
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 3.1% in FY2025 from −21.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $1.9B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
GrowthSales grew 19% to $5.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
SetupA capitulation-reversal setup is armed: a close above $206.90 triggers it, with a reference stop at $180.00.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 32% off its 52-week high (dip watch).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $168.30, 18% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 5%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 58×: a rich multiple of current earnings power.
VoicesStanley Druckenmiller (Aug 14): “13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 181,760 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.” SEC 13F (Duquesne Family Office)
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.52 vs the S&P 500 and 66% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Twilio in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 26.1 · FCF yield 3.5% · ROE 15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.1×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 28.3×
- FCF yield
- 3.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 58.3×
- Price / sales
- 5.69×
- Price / book
- 3.62×
- Market cap
- $33.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $31.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +19.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.96
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 48.6%
- Operating margin
- 6.8%
- Net margin
- 21.8%
- FCF margin
- 20.1%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.9B
- Total debt
- $994M
- Net cash
- $1.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.11×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +41%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $647M2.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $586M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Twilio’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $168.30 · FCF value $153.36
Market ValueForming: thesis-changing filing on Oct 29, needs five trading days
forming
Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted
$168.3018% downside
Assumes 9.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.25 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net cash $1.9B, not added.
FCF valuePrice at a 4% yield on trailing free cash flow ($1.1B)
$153.36price +34%
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $206.90
TriggerFires on a close above this
$206.90+0.9% from here
StopUnder the Oct 30 panic low
$180.00−12.2% from here
Risk if it triggersTrigger to stop
−13.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 30 · 5 days −21.7%
$205.03now
52-wk low $108.49high $301.27
Off 52-wk high−31.9%
5 days−21.7%
vs 50-day avg−20.1%
vs 200-day avg+8.6%
RSI (14)30
Market cap$37B
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin49%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.4×
Investor buzz
2 from investors
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
SD
Stanley DruckenmillerAug 14 · 13F filing
bearish13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 181,760 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when TWLO fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on TWLO or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.