QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Take-Two Interactive Software TTWO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 26% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 6% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $36.95−81%
- Market Value
- $202.99price −6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.63
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $190.17
- Fair value est.base case$36.95−80.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$189.69−0.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$190.17you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 30$202.99+6.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$258.41+35.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.6%; bull = 8.5% and 9.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TTWO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 39% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TTWO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.63
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.20
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 57.2% in FY2026 from 41.9% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −1.6% in FY2026 from −67.1% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 15% to $6.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 6.3% below its Market Value of $202.99, the average price paid since the Sep 30 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $36.95, 81% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -1.1× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $320M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −2% operating margin over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Take-Two Interactive Software in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
FCF yield 0.9% · ROE -9% · Sales +15%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 105.4×
- FCF yield
- 0.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/an/m: EBITDA near zero
- Price / sales
- 5.32×
- Price / book
- 9.85×
- Market cap
- $35.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $36.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.73
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$320M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 56.0%
- Operating margin
- −2.4%
- Net margin
- −4.8%
- FCF margin
- 5.0%
- Return on equity
- −9%
- Return on invested capital
- −3%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.8B
- Total debt
- $2.5B
- Net cash
- −$693M
- Debt / equity
- 0.70×
- Interest coverage
- -1.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $338M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $351M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Take-Two Interactive Software’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $36.95 · MV $202.99 · FCF value $44.65
Assumes 7.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.6% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.81 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net debt $693M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 32 · 5 days −6.6%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin56%
- Operating margin−2%
- Return on invested capital−2%
- Return on equity−9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.3×
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.49
- Year-ago EPS$1.04
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TTWO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.