QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Air freight & delivery
Ryanair RYAAY
In a deep dip: 27% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $77.73+45%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −27%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.37
5 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $53.72
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$51.33−4.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$53.72you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$73.82+37.4%
- Fair value est.base case$77.73+44.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.5%; bull = 8.5% and 9.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RYAAY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RYAAY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.37
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.48
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.36
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $77.73, 45% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.0%: $1.7B of free cash in the last 12 months on a $28B market cap.
Balance sheetMore cash than debt (net debt / EBITDA below zero).
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 27% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
RiskReports earnings Nov 2 (consensus EPS $3.49): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ryanair in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Air freight & delivery
All fundamentals
from SEC filings
No fundamentals for Ryanair: Latest SEC XBRL statements end 2025-03-31, too old to use. We show nothing rather than guess.
Valuation details
DCF $77.73 · FCF value $81.25
Assumes 7.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.5% a year FY24–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.80 a share (fiscal year to Mar 31, 2026, converted from EUR at 1.123, 2 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Jun 22, 2026. Capex: purchases of property, plant and equipment (from the filing).
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days +2.3%
The business
FCF $1.7B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity21%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.6×
Next report
Nov 2
- DateMon Nov 2, before the open
- Consensus EPS$3.49
- Year-ago EPS$3.76
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when RYAAY fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on RYAAY or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.