QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Garments and Clothing
V.F. VFC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 15% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $27.40+50%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.64
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $18.30
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.62−31.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$18.30you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$21.55+17.8%
- Fair value est.base case$27.40+49.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VFC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VFC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.64
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.45
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $27.40, 50% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.4% (price / FCF 10.6×): $691M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 147% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 6.0% in FY2026 from −1.5% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $3.5B at FY2026, 41% less than at FY2024.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $3.1B, 42% of the market cap (Sep 26, 2026).
GrowthSales shrank 5% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
GrowthSales fell 1.4% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 1.4% over 12 months, above the −1.8% median for the 160 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 4.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on V.F. in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 19.8 · FCF yield 9.4% · ROE 21%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 10.6×
- FCF yield
- 9.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.6×
- Price / sales
- 0.78×
- Price / book
- 3.60×
- Market cap
- $7.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $10.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −4.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $370M
- Net income growth
- +309%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 55.9%
- Operating margin
- 6.8%
- Net margin
- 3.9%
- FCF margin
- 7.3%
- Return on equity
- 21%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $443M
- Total debt
- $3.5B
- Net cash
- −$3.1B
- Debt / equity
- 1.74×
- Interest coverage
- 4.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $691M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +147%
- Dividend yield
- 1.93%$141M paid
- Payout ratio
- 38%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $79M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From V.F.’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $27.40 · FCF value $41.30
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -4.7% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.73 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 76 · 5 days +6.0%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales −4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin57%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity21%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−4%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
VFC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.