QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Trucking
ZTO Express ZTO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 21% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 22% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 11%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $31.51+55%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.08
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.5%; bull = 8.5% and 13.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ZTO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ZTO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.08
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.03
How it ranks
Where ZTO stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate55% · price below our base caseTop 20%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield6.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 30%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 30%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+11% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 45%of 1,814
- Operating margin21% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 25%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $31.51 · FCF value $208.36
Assumes 11.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.23 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CNY at 0.1499), from the 20-F filed Apr 17, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $31.51, 55% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 12.3× vs a 26.5× median for the 220 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.1% (price / FCF 16.5×): $1.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.4% ($563M paid over 12 months, 41% of earnings).
GrowthSales grew 11% to $7.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 21.3% in FY2025 from 26.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 25.0% in FY2025 from 30.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 4.6% in the last fiscal year, below the 6.4% median for the 198 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 17: results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 12.3 · FCF yield 6.1% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.3×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 16.5×
- FCF yield
- 6.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.27×
- Price / book
- 1.68×
- Market cap
- $16.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.19
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Net income growth
- +3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 25.0%
- Operating margin
- 21.3%
- Net margin
- 18.5%
- FCF margin
- 13.8%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.8B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 42.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +9%
- Dividend yield
- 3.37%$563M paid
- Payout ratio
- 41%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $188M1.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $34M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From ZTO Express’s SEC filings, reported in CNY and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $6.4B · Sales +23%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$6.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin25%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+23%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.35
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$18.59−8.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$20.35you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$25.88+27.2%
- Fair value est.base case$31.51+54.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +1.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17, after the close
- Year-ago EPS$0.43
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ZTO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ZTO Express in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Trucking
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.