QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Air freight & delivery
Delta Air Lines DAL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 14% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $203.61+154%
- Market Value
- $78.80price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.73
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $80.15
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$55.65−30.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 9$78.80−1.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$80.15you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$93.66+16.9%
- Fair value est.base case$203.61+154.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.8%; bull = 8.5% and 9.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DAL’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DAL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.73
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.57
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.47
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 12.2% (price / FCF 8.2×): $6.5B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $203.61, 154% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 110% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 44% to $7.66 in FY2025.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $13.3B at FY2025, 28% less than at FY2023.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 18 points in two fiscal years, to 24% in FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.8% over 12 months, above the −1.8% median for the 160 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 7.4%, below the 13% median for the 156 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.73 vs the S&P 500 and 39% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Delta Air Lines in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Air freight & delivery
All fundamentals
P/E 16.1 · FCF yield 12.2% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 8.2×
- FCF yield
- 12.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.8×
- Price / sales
- 0.74×
- Price / book
- 2.35×
- Market cap
- $52.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $61.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $71.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.01
- EPS growth, last FY
- +43.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.3B
- Net income growth
- −29%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 7.4%
- Net margin
- 4.6%
- FCF margin
- 9.0%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 13%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.8B
- Total debt
- $12.1B
- Net cash
- −$8.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.54×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $6.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +110%
- Dividend yield
- 0.97%$515M paid
- Payout ratio
- 16%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Delta Air Lines’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $203.61 · MV $78.80 · FCF value $112.69
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 7.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.81 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 9, 2026. Net debt $8.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days +4.4%
The business
FCF $3.0B · Sales +21%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin21%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+21%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
DAL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.