QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Air freight & delivery
United Airlines UAL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 23% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $77.88−25%
- Market Value
- $102.42price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.21
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $104.24
- Fair value est.base case$77.88−25.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$85.21−18.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$102.42−1.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$104.24you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$136.11+30.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.5%; bull = 8.5% and 11.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UAL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UAL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.21
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.59
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.50
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 9.5× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 5.8×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 22% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $25.0B at FY2025, 21% less than at FY2023.
GrowthSales grew 12% to $65.6B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $77.88, 25% below the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 70% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 6 points in two fiscal years, to 22% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.21 vs the S&P 500 and 48% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on United Airlines in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Air freight & delivery
All fundamentals
P/E 9.5 · FCF yield 3.3% · ROE 22%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.5×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 30.6×
- FCF yield
- 3.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.8×
- Price / sales
- 0.52×
- Price / book
- 1.92×
- Market cap
- $34.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $45.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $65.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.92
- EPS growth, last FY
- +7.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.6B
- Net income growth
- +9%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 7.5%
- Net margin
- 5.5%
- FCF margin
- 1.7%
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- 13%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $14.7B
- Total debt
- $26.4B
- Net cash
- −$11.7B
- Debt / equity
- 1.49×
- Interest coverage
- 3.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −70%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $54M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From United Airlines’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $77.88 · MV $102.42 · FCF value $85.34
Assumes 9.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.41 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 21, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days +6.4%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
UAL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.