QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Air freight & delivery
FedEx FDX
Not in a dip by our rules: 8% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $325.14+4%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.77
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $313.28
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$200.59−36.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$313.28you are here
- Fair value est.base case$325.14+3.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$339.35+8.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FDX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FDX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.77
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.35
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.22
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 8.7× is 35% below its own average of 13.4× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationP/E of 8.7× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.5% (price / FCF 15.3×): $4.9B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 28% over the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew only 1.7% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.8% over 12 months, above the −1.8% median for the 160 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 6.0%, below the 13% median for the 156 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 13%, below the 16% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on FedEx in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Air freight & delivery
All fundamentals
P/E 8.7 · FCF yield 6.5% · ROE 28%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.7×3-yr-end avg 13.4× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 15.3×
- FCF yield
- 6.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.9×
- Price / sales
- 0.76×
- Price / book
- 2.17×
- Market cap
- $74.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $81.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $98.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $35.98
- EPS growth, last FY
- +10.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $8.6B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 6.0%
- Net margin
- 8.7%
- FCF margin
- 5.0%
- Return on equity
- 28%
- Return on invested capital
- 13%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $11.2B
- Total debt
- $17.3B
- Net cash
- −$6.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.50×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.76%$1.3B paid
- Payout ratio
- 15%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.0B2.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $204M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From FedEx’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $325.14 · FCF value $556.17
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.7% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $20.52 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net cash $9.2B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 65 · 5 days +4.9%
The business
FCF $5.1B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin22%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity15%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when FDX fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on FDX or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.