QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services
Airbnb ABNB
On dip watch: 14% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 5% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $229.58+40%
- Market Value
- $172.68price −5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.08
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $164.39
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$111.54−32.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$164.39you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$172.68+5.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$190.50+15.9%
- Fair value est.base case$229.58+39.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.4%; bull = 8.5% and 15.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ABNB’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ABNB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.08
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.38
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $229.58, 40% above the price.
Balance sheetNet cash of $9.6B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsShare count down 4.6% in a year: $4.1B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationTrades 4.8% below its Market Value of $172.68, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 28 points in two fiscal years, to 31% in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 36.5× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 12.6×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $2.89): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Airbnb in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Diversified Commercial Services
All fundamentals
P/E 36.5 · ROE 35% · Sales +14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 36.5×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 7.46×
- Price / book
- 12.58×
- Market cap
- $98.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $88.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.7B
- Net income growth
- +3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 82.9%
- Operating margin
- 20.8%
- Net margin
- 20.4%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 35%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $12.1B
- Total debt
- $2.5B
- Net cash
- $9.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.32×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $4.1B4.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.7B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Airbnb’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $229.58 · MV $172.68 · FCF value $200.33
Assumes 13.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.13 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Capex: 'other investing' (capex not reported separately; used as an upper bound). Net cash $9.6B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days −4.4%
The business
FCF $4.9B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin37%
- Gross margin83%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital21%
- Return on equity34%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.5×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$2.89
- Year-ago EPS$2.21
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ABNB fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on ABNB or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.