QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services
United Rentals URI
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $938.89−20%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.02
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $1,170
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$710.47−39.3%
- Fair value est.base case$938.89−19.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$1,170you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,199+2.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.4%; bull = 8.5% and 13.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, URI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much URI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.02
- Volatility
- 43% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.30
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 31% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.1% in a year: $1.8B of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 26% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 9% to $17.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $938.89, 20% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 25.5× is 38% above its own average of 18.5× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 24.7% in FY2025 from 26.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 17.4×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.3×, above the 0.9× median for the 119 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on United Rentals in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Diversified Commercial Services
All fundamentals
P/E 25.5 · ROE 31% · Sales +9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.5×3-yr-end avg 18.5× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.4×
- Price / sales
- 4.16×
- Price / book
- 7.51×
- Market cap
- $72.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $85.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $17.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $45.43
- EPS growth, last FY
- −0.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.9B
- Net income growth
- +13%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 39.1%
- Operating margin
- 25.5%
- Net margin
- 16.3%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $153M
- Total debt
- $13.1B
- Net cash
- −$12.9B
- Debt / equity
- 1.35×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0.67%$485M paid
- Payout ratio
- 17%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.8B2.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $154M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From United Rentals’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $938.89 · FCF value $350.86
Assumes 11.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $37.04 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 21, 2026. Capex: rental fleet + other capex, less rental-fleet sale proceeds.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +6.5%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin39%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity31%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when URI fires a reversal signal
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