QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services
APi Group APG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $29.99−32%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.25
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $44.34
- Fair value est.base case$29.99−32.4%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$35.07−20.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$44.34you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$49.40+11.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.5%; bull = 8.5% and 8.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, APG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much APG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.25
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.51
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.45
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 16% to $8.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 31.4% in FY2025 from 28.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 18% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $29.99, 32% below the price.
ProfitabilityLost $230M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of −6.8%, below the 23% median for the 149 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 22.2×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on APi Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Diversified Commercial Services
All fundamentals
FCF yield 3.5% · ROE -7% · Sales +16%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 28.5×
- FCF yield
- 3.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 22.2×
- Price / sales
- 2.15×
- Price / book
- 5.49×
- Market cap
- $19.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $22.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +16.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.56
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$230M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 31.1%
- Operating margin
- 7.2%
- Net margin
- −2.6%
- FCF margin
- 7.6%
- Return on equity
- −7%
- Return on invested capital
- 7%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $373M
- Total debt
- $3.6B
- Net cash
- −$3.2B
- Debt / equity
- 1.02×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $673M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +18%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $252M1.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $49M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From APi Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $29.99 · FCF value $34.68
Assumes 6.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.56 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $3.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +12.4%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin31%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
APG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.