QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electrical Products
Amphenol APH
Not in a dip by our rules: 11% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $61.17−23%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.88
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $79.30
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$59.58−24.9%
- Fair value est.base case$61.17−22.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$79.30you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$88.62+11.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, APH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much APH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.88
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.52
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.56
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 58% to $33.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 22% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 40% over the last 12 months, up 9 points in two years.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 25.4% in FY2025 from 20.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $61.17, 23% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 257% to $15.5B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.0×, above the 0.4× median for the 88 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 12.0×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.88 vs the S&P 500 and 46% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Amphenol in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electrical Products
All fundamentals
P/E 34.5 · FCF yield 2.5% · ROE 40%
Valuation
- P/E
- 34.5×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 40.0×
- FCF yield
- 2.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 20.5×
- Price / sales
- 6.20×
- Price / book
- 11.96×
- Market cap
- $205Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $217B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $33.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +57.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.97
- EPS growth, last FY
- +74.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $5.9B
- Net income growth
- +55%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 38.8%
- Operating margin
- 27.7%
- Net margin
- 18.0%
- FCF margin
- 15.5%
- Return on equity
- 40%
- Return on invested capital
- 22%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $5.3B
- Total debt
- $17.9B
- Net cash
- −$12.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.04×
- Interest coverage
- 12.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $5.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +44%
- Dividend yield
- 0.55%$1.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 19%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $802M0.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $167M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Amphenol’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $61.17 · FCF value $46.13
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 22.3% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.98 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days +7.0%
The business
FCF $4.7B · Sales +58%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin28%
- Return on invested capital19%
- Return on equity42%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+58%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when APH fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on APH or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.