QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electrical Products
Teradyne TER
Deep dip with a setup armed: a close above $284.16 triggers it. 43% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $103.11−62%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −43%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.38
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $274.37
- Fair value est.base case$103.11−62.4%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$155.90−43.2%
- Stopreference, not an order$266.36−2.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$274.37you are here
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$284.16+3.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$483.84+76.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TER’s free cash flow would need to grow about 21% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TER moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.38
- Volatility
- 76% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.57
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.68
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 75% to $5.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 31.5× is 29% below its own average of 44.5× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 124% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 43% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
SetupA capitulation-reversal setup is armed: a close above $284.16 triggers it, with a reference stop at $266.36.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $103.11, 62% below the price.
GrowthSales grew 0.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 11% median for the 162 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.2%, below the 0.9% median for the 69 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 4.5% in the last fiscal year, below the 18% median for the 118 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.38 vs the S&P 500 and 76% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Teradyne in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electrical Products
All fundamentals
P/E 31.5 · FCF yield 2.4% · ROE 43%
Valuation
- P/E
- 31.5×3-yr-end avg 44.5× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 42.2×
- FCF yield
- 2.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 8.64×
- Price / book
- 11.72×
- Market cap
- $43.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +74.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.70
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Net income growth
- +210%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 59.3%
- Operating margin
- 32.1%
- Net margin
- 27.5%
- FCF margin
- 20.5%
- Return on equity
- 43%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $461M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 147.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +124%
- Dividend yield
- 0.18%$80M paid
- Payout ratio
- 6%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $357M0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $80M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 27, 2026. From Teradyne’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $103.11 · FCF value $151.11
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.51 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026.
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $284.16
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 29 · 5 days −11.2%
The business
FCF $1.0B · Sales +104%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin59%
- Operating margin33%
- Return on invested capital38%
- Return on equity46%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+104%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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