QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electrical Products
Celestica CLS
In a deep dip: 44% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $138.15−48%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −44%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.33
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $265.53
- Fair value est.base case$138.15−48.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$246.65−7.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$265.53you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$472.40+77.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CLS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 27% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CLS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.33
- Volatility
- 79% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.54
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.61
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 62% to $18.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 98% to $7.16 in FY2025.
Balance sheetNet cash of $3.1B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 42%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 44% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $138.15, 48% below the price.
Cash returnsShare count up 5.1% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 59×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 11%, below the 59% median for the 151 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.33 vs the S&P 500 and 79% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Celestica in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electrical Products
All fundamentals
P/E 26.0 · FCF yield 1.7% · ROE 30%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.0×3-yr-end avg 27.1× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 59.3×
- FCF yield
- 1.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.3×
- Price / sales
- 1.77×
- Price / book
- 5.20×
- Market cap
- $32.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $29.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $18.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +61.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +19.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.60
- EPS growth, last FY
- +98.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Net income growth
- +74%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 11.5%
- Operating margin
- 8.3%
- Net margin
- 6.8%
- FCF margin
- 3.0%
- Return on equity
- 30%
- Return on invested capital
- 42%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.0B
- Total debt
- $819M
- Net cash
- $3.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.13×
- Interest coverage
- 20.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $545M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +37%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $58M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +5.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $84M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Celestica’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $138.15 · FCF value $102.27
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 19.6% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.48 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 26, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days +2.1%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +82%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin12%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity41%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+82%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CLS fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on CLS or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.