QualityDipStocks / Technology · Electrical Products
Flex FLEX
In a deep dip: 47% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $33.18−62%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −47%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.16
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $86.48
- Fair value est.base case$33.18−61.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$54.51−37.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$86.48you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$162.07+87.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FLEX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FLEX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.16
- Volatility
- 73% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.56
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.63
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 18% to $31.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 19% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 16%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 47% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $33.18, 62% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 31.2× is 66% above its own average of 18.8× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 34% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 9.5%, below the 59% median for the 151 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.16 vs the S&P 500 and 73% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Flex in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electrical Products
All fundamentals
P/E 31.2 · FCF yield 2.4% · ROE 19%
Valuation
- P/E
- 31.2×3-yr-end avg 18.8× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 41.3×
- FCF yield
- 2.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.3×
- Price / sales
- 1.04×
- Price / book
- 5.57×
- Market cap
- $32.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $34.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $31.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +17.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.77
- EPS growth, last FY
- +10.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.0B
- Net income growth
- +18%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 9.5%
- Operating margin
- 5.1%
- Net margin
- 3.4%
- FCF margin
- 2.5%
- Return on equity
- 19%
- Return on invested capital
- 16%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.1B
- Total debt
- $5.2B
- Net cash
- −$2.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.90×
- Interest coverage
- 6.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $783M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −34%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $400M1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $165M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 25, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 25, 2026. From Flex’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $33.18 · FCF value $49.02
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.7% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.09 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 25, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net debt $2.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days +13.0%
The business
FCF $0.8B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin10%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when FLEX fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on FLEX or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.