QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services
Arlo Technologies ARLO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 27% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 7% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: there isn’t enough data.
Worth knowing
- Down 27% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 16%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $13.20price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −27%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.35
52-week range 36% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $14.13Market Value $13.20
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 27% below its 52-week high (Oct 31), but the business held up: revenue +15.6%, revenue growth rate +17.4 pts, earnings per share turned to a profit.
Some numbers held up (revenue +15.6%, revenue growth rate +17.4 pts, earnings per share turned to a profit), others slipped. The price is 27% below its 52-week high.
The price is 27% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$508M → $587M (+15.6%)held up
- Revenue growth rate−1.7% → +15.6% a year (+17.4 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a profitheld up
- Operating margin−2.2% → 2.7% (+4.8 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−1.8% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −27%, sector median +13% since Oct 31changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −27%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +16% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 29, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 28, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk low: P/E 286.3×; now: P/E 49.1×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $19.34Oct 31 | $11.23Feb 12 | $14.13 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | n/a | 286.3× | 49.1× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for ARLO: Capital spending isn't tagged for the latest period in SEC XBRL data. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ARLO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.35
- Volatility
- 54% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.28
How it ranks
Where ARLO stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 3 measures
- Dividends + buybacks yield4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 35%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+16% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 32%of 2,184
- Operating margin2.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 21%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $13.20 · FCF value $14.13
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 44.0% in FY2025 from 34.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 1.1% in FY2025 from −5.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 16% to $587M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 22% over the last 12 months, up 33 points in two years.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 49.1× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 2.6% over 12 months, above the −1.4% median for the 377 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 9.5×, above the 3.0× median for the 413 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 2.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 5.2% median for the 467 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 7.0% above its Market Value of $13.20, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 49.1 · ROE 22% · Sales +16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 49.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.55×
- Price / book
- 9.46×
- Market cap
- $1.5Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $587M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $31M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 46.0%
- Operating margin
- 2.7%
- Net margin
- 5.2%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $101M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $60M4.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $72M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 28, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 28, 2026. From Arlo Technologies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +20%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin45%
- Operating margin−4%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+20%
- Net debt / EBITDA−9.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $14.13
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.23−20.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$13.20−6.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$14.13you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$19.34+36.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +14.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.02)
- Year-ago EPS$0.04
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ARLO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Arlo Technologies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Diversified Commercial Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.