QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Steel
Steel Dynamics STLD
Not in a dip by our rules: 11% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $120.79−52%
- Market Value
- $245.12price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.05
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $250.80
- Fair value est.base case$120.79−51.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$151.62−39.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$245.12−2.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$250.80you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$282.76+12.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, STLD’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much STLD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.05
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.38
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.28
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 252% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 26% to $22.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 18.4× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 2.7% in a year: $831M of buybacks over 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $120.79, 52% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 8.1% in FY2025 from 16.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 13.2% in FY2025 from 21.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 18.4× is 35% above its own average of 13.6× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 14 points in two fiscal years, to 13% in FY2025.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Steel Dynamics in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Steel
All fundamentals
P/E 18.4 · FCF yield 3.0% · ROE 21%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.4×3-yr-end avg 13.6× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 32.9×
- FCF yield
- 3.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.2×
- Price / sales
- 1.62×
- Price / book
- 3.66×
- Market cap
- $36.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $39.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $22.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +26.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −6.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $13.54
- EPS growth, last FY
- −18.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Net income growth
- +74%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 15.9%
- Operating margin
- 11.5%
- Net margin
- 8.8%
- FCF margin
- 4.9%
- Return on equity
- 21%
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $929M
- Total debt
- $4.2B
- Net cash
- −$3.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.43×
- Interest coverage
- 18.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +252%
- Dividend yield
- 0.83%$298M paid
- Payout ratio
- 15%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $831M2.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $70M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Steel Dynamics’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $120.79 · MV $245.12 · FCF value $189.32
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -6.5% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.62 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 23, 2026. Net debt $3.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 59 · 5 days +3.8%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +33%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+33%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when STLD fires a reversal signal
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