QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
Axis Capital AXS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 8% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $129.02+21%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.21
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 11% below its 52-week high (Jul 28), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +0.7 pts, revenue +1.7%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +0.7 pts, revenue +1.7%), others slipped. The price is 11% below its 52-week high.
The price is 11% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$6.8B → $6.9B (+1.7%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+9.1% → +9.8% a year (+0.7 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$14.47 → $13.68 (−5.5%)about the same
- Shares outstanding−3.3% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −11%, sector median −4% since Jul 28held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −11%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −2% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 8.2× at the high → 7.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 30, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 8.2×; 52-wk low: P/E 7.5×; now: P/E 7.8×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $119.27Jul 28 | $93.66Oct 31 | $106.60 |
| P/E | 8.2× | 7.5× | 7.8× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 14.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.2%; bull = 8.5% and 16.2%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AXS would need a return on equity of about 12% a year; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AXS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.21
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.28
How it ranks
Where AXS stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate21% · price below our base caseTop 33%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield8.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 9%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+9.8% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 49%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $129.02
Financials model (residual income): book value $85.50 a share on Sep 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 14.2%, the average of 16.4% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 12.0% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 64% of earnings (dividends 14% + net buybacks 50%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $129.02, 21% above the price.
Cash returnsShare count down 6.7% in a year: $546M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 7.8× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 15% over the last 12 months, up 9 points in two years.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $6.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 2 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 0.0% in the last fiscal year, below the 16% median for the 262 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 14%, below the 22% median for the 281 Finance companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 7.8 · ROE 15% · Sales +10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 7.8×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.10×
- Price / book
- 1.21×
- Market cap
- $7.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $13.07
- EPS growth, last FY
- 0.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $981M
- Net income growth
- −0%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 14.2%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.0B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.76%$135M paid
- Payout ratio
- 14%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $546M7.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $55M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Axis Capital’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $2.1B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield27.4%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $106.60
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$93.66−12.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$106.60you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$119.27+11.9%
- Fair value est.base case$129.02+21.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 72 · 5 days +4.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AXS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Axis Capital in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.