QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Home improvement retail
Boise Cascade L.L.C. BCC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 18% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate, 4% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 6% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $60.21−20%
- Market Value
- $77.82price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −18%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.89
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 18% below its 52-week high (Feb 6), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +5.5 pts, free cash flow −$64M → $133M, turned positive, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +5.5 pts, free cash flow −$64M → $133M, turned positive, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (earnings per share −33.2%). The price is 18% below its 52-week high.
The price is 18% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −33.2%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$6.5B → $6.6B (+1.2%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate−4.3% → +1.2% a year (+5.5 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$5.15 → $3.44 (−33.2%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$64M → $133M, turned positiveheld up
- Operating margin4.0% → 2.8% (−1.2 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding−6.7% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−5.0% of market cap since the highabout the same
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −18%, sector median +3% since Feb 6changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −18%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −16% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 17.7× at the high → 21.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($65.47, May 19) about 28%; today about 7%. The last 3 years delivered −76%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −76%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $91.03Feb 6 | $65.47May 19 | $75.00 |
| Implied growth | n/a | +28% | +7% |
| P/E | 17.7× | 21.4× | 21.8× |
| P/FCF | — | 61.1× | 19.7× |
| EV/Sales | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BCC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BCC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.89
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.29
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where BCC stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate20% · price above our base caseLowest 35%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield5.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 39%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield8.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 10%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+1.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 17%of 1,814
- Operating margin2.8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 18%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital6.2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 31%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $60.21 · MV $77.82 · FCF value $28.85
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -8.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.80 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 2, 2026. Net debt $64M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 6.7% in a year: $185M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.1% (price / FCF 19.7×): $133M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 7.7×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.2×, below the 0.8× median for the 250 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 3.6% below its Market Value of $77.82, the average price paid since the Aug 3 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $60.21, 20% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 63% to $3.53 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 2.9% in FY2025 from 9.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 16 points in two fiscal years, to 6% in FY2025.
GrowthSales shrank 9% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
All fundamentals
P/E 21.8 · FCF yield 5.1% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 19.7×
- FCF yield
- 5.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.7×
- Price / sales
- 0.40×
- Price / book
- 1.28×
- Market cap
- $2.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −8.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.40
- EPS growth, last FY
- −63.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $120M
- Net income growth
- −38%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 2.8%
- Net margin
- 1.8%
- FCF margin
- 2.0%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $385M
- Total debt
- $449M
- Net cash
- −$64M
- Debt / equity
- 0.22×
- Interest coverage
- 7.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $133M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.30%$34M paid
- Payout ratio
- 28%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $185M7.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $12M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Boise Cascade L.L.C.’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $75.00
- Fair value est.base case$60.21−19.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$65.47−12.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$75.00you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 3$77.82+3.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$91.03+21.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days −0.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
BCC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Boise Cascade L.L.C. in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Home improvement retail
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.