QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Home improvement retail
QXO QXO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 57% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Lowest close since Aug 2024
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $5.68−51%
- Market Value
- $11.91price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −57%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.65
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 57% below its 52-week high (Feb 13), but the business held up: revenue +112.3%, free cash flow +78.9%, operating margin +1.1 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +112.3%, free cash flow +78.9%, operating margin +1.1 pts), others slipped (shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, net cash (cash minus debt) −28.0% of market cap since the high). The price is 57% below its 52-week high.
The price is 57% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, net cash (cash minus debt) −28.0% of market cap since the high.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$4.7B → $9.9B (+112.3%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$79M → $141M (+78.9%)held up
- Operating margin−4.5% → −3.4% (+1.1 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+7.3% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−28.0% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −57%, sector median +3% since Feb 13changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −57%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +96% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 245.3× at the high → 63.5× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($27.07, Feb 13) the price assumed about 57%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($10.14, Oct 19) about 26%; today about 29%.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $27.07Feb 13 | $10.14Oct 19 | $11.68 |
| Implied growth | +57% | +26% | +29% |
| P/FCF | 245.3× | 55.1× | 63.5× |
| EV/Sales | 4.3× | 1.1× | 1.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, QXO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 29% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much QXO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.65
- Volatility
- 65% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.52
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.42
How it ranks
Where QXO stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate51% · price above our base caseLowest 13%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1.6% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 24%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+408% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 1%of 1,814
- Operating margin−3.4% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 9%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 7%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $5.68 · MV $11.91
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1020.3% a year FY23–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.18 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 14, 2026. Net debt $3.3B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 408% to $9.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 0.9×, below the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.6×, below the 0.8× median for the 250 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $5.68, 51% below the price.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 23.0% in FY2025 from 39.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -1.4× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $656M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 7.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 1.6% · ROE -6% · Sales +408%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 63.5×
- FCF yield
- 1.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 0.91×
- Price / book
- 0.86×
- Market cap
- $9.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $12.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +408.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/an/m
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.92
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$656M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 24.0%
- Operating margin
- −3.4%
- Net margin
- −6.6%
- FCF margin
- 1.4%
- Return on equity
- −6%
- Return on invested capital
- −2%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.8B
- Total debt
- $6.0B
- Net cash
- −$3.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.58×
- Interest coverage
- -1.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $141M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +35.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $128M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From QXO’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-2.5B · Sales +70%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$2.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin−26%
- Gross margin24%
- Operating margin1%
- Return on invested capital1%
- Return on equity−5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+70%
- Net debt / EBITDA7.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $11.68
- Fair value est.base case$5.68−51.4%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$10.14−13.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$11.68you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 13$11.91+2.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$27.07+131.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +11.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5
- Consensus EPS$0.13
- Year-ago EPS$0.14
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
QXO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on QXO in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Home improvement retail
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.