Stocks / Energy · Industrial machinery

Bloom Energy BE

Energy · Industrial machinery

$203.17−8.61% dayFri Oct 30 close

In a deep dip: 41% below its 52-week high.

A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.

Deep dipFounder holds shares

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Fair value est.: $41.55−80%
Market Value: $206.97price −2%
Off 52-wk high: −41%
Risk vs market: Highbeta 4.46

5 bullish · 5 bearish See why

Fair value est.Market ValueDrag across the chart to see any day

Key levels

Every level vs today’s $203.17

Fair value est.base case$41.55−79.6%
52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$76.97−62.1%
PriceFri Oct 30 close$203.17you are here
Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$206.97+1.9%
52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$345.85+70.2%

Fair value estimate

How the range is computed

Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.

$41.55−80% vs price

Price $203.17

Bear$31.89

Base$41.55

Bull$55.66

Price is above even the bull case.

Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care

What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 46% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.

Risk vs market

How risk vs market is measured

One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.

High

Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 8.6× the S&P 500’s.

Beta vs S&P 500: 4.46
Volatility: 111% vs 13% SPY
Correlation SPY: 0.52
Correlation QQQ: 0.57

Bull vs bear

Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.

Top bullish points 5 of 5

GrowthSales grew 111% to $3.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 3.6% in FY2025 from −15.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 29.0% in FY2025 from 14.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 223% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 41% off its 52-week high (deep dip).

Top bearish points 5 of 5

ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $41.55, 80% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 126.8× vs a 16.2× median for the 43 Energy companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt rose 210% to $2.6B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count up 38.0% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 106×: a rich multiple of current earnings power.

Who’s talking about it

Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Bloom Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.

No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.

Compare with peers

Closest in size in Energy

CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap

PLUGPlug Power$1.37−3.5%−48%n/an/a$2B IMOImperial Oil$138.10+5.5%+51%−15%22.5×$63B OXYOccidental Petroleum$64.00+1.6%+57%+17%9.9×$63B MPLXMPLX LP Common Units Representing Limited Partner Interests$60.16+0.5%+19%−9%12.9×$61B CVECenovus Energy$32.73+1.9%+95%−37%21.1×$60B FANGDiamondback Energy$212.08+2.7%+49%n/a40.9×$58B

All fundamentals

P/E 126.8 · FCF yield 0.7% · ROE 40%

Valuation

P/E: 126.8×Energy median 16.2×
Price / FCF: 150.9×
FCF yield: 0.7%
EV / EBITDA: 106.0×
Price / sales: 17.20×
Price / book: 34.09×
Market cap: $65.9Bprice × diluted shares
Enterprise value: $65.9B

Growth

Revenue, 12 months: $3.8B
Sales growth, 12 months: +110.6%vs the 12 months before
Sales growth, 3 yrs: +19.1%/yrfrom FY2022
Diluted EPS, 12 months: $1.65
EPS growth, last FY: n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
Net income, 12 months: $520M
Net income growth: n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero

Profitability

Gross margin: 32.3%
Operating margin: 14.8%
Net margin: 13.6%
FCF margin: 11.4%
Return on equity: 40%
Return on invested capital: 29%

Balance sheet

Cash & short-term inv.: $2.5B
Total debt: $2.5B
Net cash: $7M
Debt / equity: 1.28×
Interest coverage: 15.9×operating income / interest

Cash flow & returns

Free cash flow, 12 months: $437M
FCF growth, 12 months: +223%
Dividend yield: 0.00%$925,000 paid
Payout ratio: 0%
Buybacks, 12 months: n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Share count, 1 year: +38.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
Stock-based comp: n/anot reported in its SEC filings

Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Bloom Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.

Valuation details

DCF $41.55 · MV $206.97 · FCF value $33.67

How

Market ValueAverage paid since the Oct 22 filing, 6 trading days

$206.97price −2%

Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted

$41.5580% downside

Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care

Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 19.1% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.35 a share, trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 (company filings via Yahoo Finance, checked against SEC).

FCF valuePrice at a 4% free-cash-flow yield

$33.67price +503%

How we got these

Market Value: volume-weighted average close from Oct 23 (first full trading day after the filing) to Oct 30, 6 trading days. Simple average $211.55. Event: SEC 8-K Item 2.02 (earnings), filed Oct 22, 4:09 PM ET. Read the filing.
Free cash flow, 12 months to Sep 30: $691M operating cash flow − $254M capex = $437M, or $1.35 a share on 0.32B diluted shares.
DCF: free cash flow per share grows 15% a year for five years, from its FY2022–FY2025 revenue growth of 19% a year (capped at 15%), fading to 3% by year ten; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth.
FCF value: free cash flow per share ÷ 4%, the price at which the stock yields 4% in free cash flow.

Setup & signals

No setup armed

All setups

No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.

Momentum & 52-week range

RSI 39 · 5 days +5.1%

$203.17nowMV

52-wk low $76.97high $345.85

Off 52-wk high−41.3%

5 days+5.1%

vs 50-day avg−18.1%

vs 200-day avg−8.2%

RSI (14)39

Market cap$66B

The business

FCF $0.4B · Sales +138%

Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
Free-cash-flow yield0.7%
Free-cash-flow margin11%
Gross margin32%
Operating margin15%
Return on invested capital10%
Return on equity44%
Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+138%
Net debt / EBITDA0.5×

Investor buzz

3 from investors

Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz

Chris CamilloOct 26 · Post

bullish

“added to $BE and $AMZN”

BE X (@ChrisCamillo)

Jim CramerSep 30 · TV call

bullish

Labelled “Buy on a Pullback” on CNBC (Mad Money), per Quiver's CNBC pick tracker. No quote captured.

BE CNBC via Quiver tracker

Stanley DruckenmillerAug 14 · 13F filing

bearish

13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 136,320 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.

BE SEC 13F (Duquesne Family Office)

Disclosure: QualityDip’s founder, Sruly, holds shares of Bloom Energy (BE).

Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.

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