QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts
Boyd Gaming BYD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 6% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 19% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $72.65price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.53
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 16% below its 52-week high (Jul 28), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin +0.4 pts.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, operating margin +0.4 pts), others slipped (earnings per share −70.1%, free cash flow $281M → −$16M, turned negative, net cash (cash minus debt) −8.9% of market cap since the high). The price is 16% below its 52-week high.
The price is 16% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −70.1%, free cash flow $281M → −$16M, turned negative, net cash (cash minus debt) −8.9% of market cap since the high.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$4.1B → $4.1B (−0.3%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+3.4% → +0.3% a year (−3.1 pts)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$23.93 → $7.16 (−70.1%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$281M → −$16M, turned negativechanged
- Operating margin17.4% → 17.8% (+0.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−8.7% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−8.9% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −16%, sector median −1% since Jul 28about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −16%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −35% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 3.8× at the high → 10.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($91.26, Jul 28) the price assumed about 11%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($66.07, Oct 1) about 45%. The last 3 years delivered −18%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −18%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $91.26Jul 28 | $66.07Oct 1 | $77.04 |
| Implied growth | +11% | +45% | n/a |
| P/E | 3.8× | 2.7× | 10.8× |
| P/FCF | 24.9× | 141.0× | — |
| EV/Sales | 2.2× | 1.8× | 1.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for BYD: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BYD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.53
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.25
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.10
How it ranks
Where BYD stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−0.3% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 16%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield13% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 3%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+0.3% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 14%of 1,814
- Operating margin18% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 34%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital12% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 41%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $72.65
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 264% to $22.56 in FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count down 9.7% in a year: $660M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 10.8× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $2.0B at FY2025, 30% less than at FY2023.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 20% over the last 12 months, up 35 points in two years.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$16M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 18.3% in FY2025 from 24.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet debt of $2.4B, 44% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 6.0% above its Market Value of $72.65, the average price paid since the Oct 22 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 10.8 · FCF yield -0.3% · ROE 20%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −0.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.1×
- Price / sales
- 1.32×
- Price / book
- 2.20×
- Market cap
- $5.4Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $7.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.81
- EPS growth, last FY
- +264.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $502M
- Net income growth
- −73%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 17.8%
- Net margin
- 12.3%
- FCF margin
- −0.4%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- 12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $298M
- Total debt
- $2.7B
- Net cash
- −$2.4B
- Debt / equity
- 1.09×
- Interest coverage
- 6.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$16M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.07%$58M paid
- Payout ratio
- 11%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $660M12.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −9.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $32M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Boyd Gaming’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.1B · Sales −1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield-0.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin−4%
- Gross margin59%
- Operating margin19%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−1%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $77.04
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$66.07−14.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$72.65−5.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$77.04you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$91.26+18.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +6.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
BYD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Boyd Gaming in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.