QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts
Red Rock Resorts RRR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 23% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 3% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $63.45+23%
- Market Value
- $49.87price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.51
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 23% below its 52-week high (Jun 26), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) −1.0% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) −1.0% of market cap since the high), others slipped (free cash flow −24.3%, earnings per share −8.4%). The price is 23% below its 52-week high.
The price is 23% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −24.3%, earnings per share −8.4%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.0B → $2.0B (−0.8%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+3.7% → +0.9% a year (−2.9 pts)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$3.14 → $2.87 (−8.4%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$255M → $193M (−24.3%)changed
- Operating margin29.0% → 27.7% (−1.4 pts)about the same
- Shares outstanding−0.9% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−1.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −23%, sector median +2% since Jun 26changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −23%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −8% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 15.7× at the high → 15.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($67.26, Jun 26) the price assumed about 3%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($48.42, Oct 28) about 2%; today about 3%. The last 3 years delivered 11%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 11%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $67.26Jun 26 | $48.42Oct 28 | $51.54 |
| Implied growth | +3% | +2% | +3% |
| P/E | 21.4× | 16.9× | 17.9× |
| P/FCF | 15.7× | 14.8× | 15.7× |
| EV/Sales | 3.7× | 3.1× | 3.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.5%; bull = 8.5% and 8.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RRR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RRR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.51
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
How it ranks
Where RRR stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate23% · price below our base caseTop 32%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.6% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 45%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 37%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+0.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 15%of 1,814
- Operating margin28% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 14%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital13% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 37%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $63.45 · MV $49.87 · FCF value $40.56
Assumes 6.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.28 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net debt $3.4B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $63.45, 23% above the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 90% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 42.8% in a year: $87M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 28% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.2% ($121M paid over 12 months, 72% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $3.4B, 64% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.8× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 38% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 29.7% in FY2025 from 32.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 4.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 32.0 · FCF yield 3.6% · ROE 90%
Valuation
- P/E
- 32.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 28.0×
- FCF yield
- 3.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.5×
- Price / sales
- 2.69×
- Price / book
- 31.57×
- Market cap
- $5.4Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $8.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.83
- EPS growth, last FY
- +23.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $169M
- Net income growth
- −4%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 27.7%
- Net margin
- 8.4%
- FCF margin
- 9.6%
- Return on equity
- 90%
- Return on invested capital
- 13%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $136M
- Total debt
- $3.6B
- Net cash
- −$3.4B
- Debt / equity
- n/an/m: equity near zero
- Interest coverage
- 2.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $193M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −38%
- Dividend yield
- 2.24%$121M paid
- Payout ratio
- 72%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $87M1.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −42.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $33M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Red Rock Resorts’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales −3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin67%
- Operating margin27%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity109%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−3%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $51.54
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$48.42−6.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$49.87−3.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$51.54you are here
- Fair value est.base case$63.45+23.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$67.26+30.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +2.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.23
- Year-ago EPS$0.68
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
RRR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Red Rock Resorts in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.