QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts
Atour Lifestyle ATAT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 21% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- ROE 49% and more cash than debt
- Down 22% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 35%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $63.12+87%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.70
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ATAT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ATAT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.70
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
How it ranks
Where ATAT stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate87% · price below our base caseTop 12%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield6% · free cash flow vs market capTop 31%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 41%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+35% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 12%of 1,814
- Operating margin24% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 21%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $63.12 · FCF value $373.12
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 62.9% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.05 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CNY at 0.1499, 3 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 17, 2026. Net cash $842M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $63.12, 87% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 63% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet cash of $842M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
GrowthSales grew 35% to $1.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 49% over the last 12 months, up 9 points in two years.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 8.8×, above the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 10 (consensus EPS $0.56): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 19.4 · FCF yield 6.0% · ROE 49%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.4×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 16.5×
- FCF yield
- 6.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.0×
- Price / sales
- 3.22×
- Price / book
- 8.77×
- Market cap
- $4.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +35.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +62.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- +26.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $243M
- Net income growth
- +27%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 23.6%
- Net margin
- 16.6%
- FCF margin
- 19.5%
- Return on equity
- 49%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $880M
- Total debt
- $38M
- Net cash
- $842M
- Debt / equity
- 0.07×
- Interest coverage
- 542.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $286M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +14%
- Dividend yield
- 2.45%$116M paid
- Payout ratio
- 48%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $49M1.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $20M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Atour Lifestyle’s SEC filings, reported in CNY and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $2.0B · Sales +41%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin17%
- Gross margin44%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on equity59%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+41%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $33.82
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$30.29−10.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$33.82you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$42.90+26.8%
- Fair value est.base case$63.12+86.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +3.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 10
- DateTue Nov 10, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.56
- Year-ago EPS$0.48
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ATAT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Atour Lifestyle in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.