Stocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts

TNL

Travel Leisure Co. Common Stock TNL

Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts

$75.52+5.37% dayMon Nov 2 close

Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.

Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 6% over its Market Value.

Worth knowing

Share count down 11% in 2 years

From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these

Outside our quality screen

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Fair value est.: $112.16+49%
Market Value: $71.02price +6%
Off 52-wk high: −4%
Risk vs market: Market-likebeta 0.91

4 bullish · 5 bearish See why

Covered for reference — doesn’t pass our quality screen (market cap $4.6B, under our $20B floor; net debt 6.2× EBITDA (limit 3×)). We show its price, Market Value and DCF, but it never appears in Dips, Top Picks or reversal signals. The screen

Repriced or dip?

Near its high

Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.

Data-based read, not advice.

Priced in

How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).

At the high ($78.74, Apr 14) the price assumed about −5%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($61.25, Nov 17) about −9%; today about −3%. The last 3 years delivered 10%/yr (free cash flow).

52-wk high$78.74−5%
52-wk low$61.25−9%
Now$75.52−3%

Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 10%/yr (free cash flow)

	High	Low	Now
Price	$78.74Apr 14	$61.25Nov 17	$75.52
Implied growth	−5%	−9%	−3%
P/E	22.9×	9.9×	20.1×
P/FCF	10.1×	8.0×	11.3×
EV/Sales	2.6×	2.4×	2.5×

What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.

How it’s computed

Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.

Valuation

What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.

Fair value estimate

How the range is computed

Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.1%; bull = 8.5% and 6.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.

$112.16+49% vs price

Price $75.52

Bear$86.93

Base$112.16

Bull$149.00

Price is below even the bear case.

What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TNL’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.

Risk vs market

How risk vs market is measured

One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TNL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.

Market-like

Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.

Beta vs S&P 500: 0.91
Volatility: 33% vs 13% SPY
Correlation SPY: 0.35
Correlation QQQ: 0.19

How it ranks

Where TNL stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.

Top quarter on 3 of 6 measures

Discount to fair value estimate49% · price below our base case
Top 22%of 1,314
Free cash flow yield8.8% · free cash flow vs market cap
Top 14%of 1,391
Dividends + buybacks yield10% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market cap
Top 6%of 1,836
Revenue growth, last 12 months+4.6% · vs the 12 months before
Lowest 27%of 1,814
Operating margin13% · of sales kept as operating profit
Top 47%of 1,288
Return on invested capital8% · profit per dollar of capital
Lowest 38%of 838

From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.

Valuation details

DCF $112.16 · MV $71.02 · FCF value $172.38

How

Market ValueAverage paid since the Oct 27 filing, 5 trading days

$71.02price +6%

Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted

$112.1649% upside

Assumes 4.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.66 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026. Net debt $5.8B, not deducted.

FCF valuePrice at a 4% yield on trailing free cash flow ($0.4B)

$172.38price −56%

Fundamentals

The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.

Bull vs bear

Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.

Top bullish points 4 of 5

ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $112.16, 49% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.8% (price / FCF 11.3×): $417M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.3% in a year: $340M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.2% ($149M paid over 12 months, 63% of earnings).

Top bearish points 5 of 5

Balance sheetNet debt of $5.8B, 122% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 41% to $3.44 in FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.4× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 13.8% in FY2025 from 19.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 6.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).

All fundamentals

P/E 20.1 · FCF yield 8.8% · Sales +5%

Valuation

P/E: 20.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
Price / FCF: 11.3×
FCF yield: 8.8%
EV / EBITDA: 15.6×
Price / sales: 1.14×
Price / book: n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Market cap: $4.7Bprice × diluted shares
Enterprise value: $10.5B

Growth

Revenue, 12 months: $4.2B
Sales growth, 12 months: +4.6%vs the 12 months before
Sales growth, 3 yrs: +4.1%/yrfrom FY2022
Diluted EPS, 12 months: $3.75
EPS growth, last FY: −40.9%
Net income, 12 months: $235M
Net income growth: −43%12 months vs before

Profitability

Gross margin: 92.7%
Operating margin: 13.0%
Net margin: 5.7%
FCF margin: 10.0%
Return on equity: n/anegative shareholder equity
Return on invested capital: 8%

Balance sheet

Cash & short-term inv.: $306M
Total debt: $6.1B
Net cash: −$5.8B
Debt / equity: n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
Interest coverage: 2.4×operating income / interest

Cash flow & returns

Free cash flow, 12 months: $417M
FCF growth, 12 months: −18%
Dividend yield: 3.15%$149M paid
Payout ratio: 63%
Buybacks, 12 months: $340M7.2% of market cap
Share count, 1 year: −5.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
Stock-based comp: $62M

Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Travel Leisure Co. Common Stock’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.

The business

FCF $0.4B · Sales +6%

Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
Free-cash-flow yield8.8%
Gross margin51%
Operating margin19%
Return on invested capital13%
Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
Net debt / EBITDA6.2×

Chart & levels

Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.

Fair value est.Market ValueDrag across the chart to see any day

Key levels

Every level vs today’s $75.52

52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$61.25−18.9%
Market Valueavg paid since Oct 27$71.02−6.0%
PriceMon Nov 2 close$75.52you are here
52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$78.74+4.3%
Fair value est.base case$112.16+48.5%

Momentum & 52-week range

RSI 77 · 5 days +15.1%

$75.52nowMV

52-wk low $61.25high $78.74

Off 52-wk high−4.1%

5 days+15.1%

vs 50-day avg+14.6%

vs 200-day avg+7.3%

RSI (14), last close77

Market cap$5B

Signals

Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.

Setup & signals

No setup armed

All setups

No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.

TNL is outside our quality screen

One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.

Voices & buzz

Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.

Who’s talking about it

Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Travel Leisure Co. Common Stock in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.

No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.

Compare with peers

Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts

CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap

ATATAtour Lifestyle$33.82+4.0%−13%+87%19.4×$5B PLNTPlanet Fitness$55.65+3.9%−39%+62%18.0×$4B BYDBoyd Gaming$77.04+5.8%−1%n/a10.8×$5B RRRRed Rock Resorts$51.54+4.9%−3%+23%32.0×$5B CHHChoice Hotels International$118.61+6.7%+28%−52%26.0×$5B WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts$78.53+4.4%+7%−10%28.9×$6B

Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.