QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Marine Transportation
Carnival CCL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 15% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 10% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $71.63+148%
- Market Value
- $26.33price +10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.11
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $28.83
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$21.79−24.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 29$26.33−8.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$28.83you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$33.99+17.9%
- Fair value est.base case$71.63+148.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CCL’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CCL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.11
- Volatility
- 50% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.55
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.42
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 37.5% in FY2024 from 3.4% in FY2022 (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $71.63, 148% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
GrowthSales compounded 30% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.1% (price / FCF 12.4×): $3.2B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 12.6× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 5% over the last 12 months, from 30% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Balance sheetNet debt of $23.3B, 59% of the market cap (Aug 31, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.7×, above the 0.9× median for the 119 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 9.5% above its Market Value of $26.33, the average price paid since the Sep 29 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Carnival in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Marine Transportation
All fundamentals
P/E 12.6 · FCF yield 8.1% · ROE 24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 12.4×
- FCF yield
- 8.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.6×
- Price / sales
- 1.43×
- Price / book
- 2.78×
- Market cap
- $39.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $62.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $27.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +29.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- +40.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.1B
- Net income growth
- +19%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 16.0%
- Net margin
- 11.4%
- FCF margin
- 11.5%
- Return on equity
- 24%
- Return on invested capital
- 12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.2B
- Total debt
- $24.6B
- Net cash
- −$23.3B
- Debt / equity
- 1.73×
- Interest coverage
- 3.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +9%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $101M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 31, 2026. From Carnival’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $71.63 · MV $26.33 · FCF value $59.07
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 29.8% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.32 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 29, 2026. Net debt $23.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 69 · 5 days +10.4%
The business
FCF $3.2B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin40%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CCL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.