QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Marine Transportation
Viking VIK
Not in a dip by our rules: 19% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $105.98+21%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −19%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.75
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $87.47
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$57.08−34.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$87.47you are here
- Fair value est.base case$105.98+21.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$108.26+23.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VIK’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VIK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.75
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.55
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.43
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $105.98, 21% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 27% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet cash of $3.4B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 23.1% in FY2025 from 17.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 34.0× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 19.9×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 35.7×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.75 vs the S&P 500 and 40% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Viking in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Marine Transportation
All fundamentals
P/E 34.0 · Sales +22%
Valuation
- P/E
- 34.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.9×
- Price / sales
- 6.01×
- Price / book
- 35.70×
- Market cap
- $39.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $35.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +21.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +27.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.57
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 43.3%
- Operating margin
- 23.1%
- Net margin
- 17.7%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.8B
- Total debt
- $375M
- Net cash
- $3.4B
- Debt / equity
- 0.34×
- Interest coverage
- 4.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- 0%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Viking’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $105.98 · FCF value $63.03
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 27.0% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.44 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 20-F filed Mar 3, 2026. Capex: ships, PP&E and intangibles (company tag). Net debt $2.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days +6.4%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin17%
- Gross margin43%
- Operating margin23%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity139%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18
- Consensus EPS$1.23
- Year-ago EPS$1.20
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when VIK fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on VIK or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.