QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Food Distributors
The Chefs' Warehouse CHEF
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $121.31+18%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.51
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 11% below its 52-week high (Oct 2), but the business held up: earnings per share +11.1%, free cash flow +44.3%, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.5% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +11.1%, free cash flow +44.3%, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.5% of market cap since the high), others slipped. The price is 11% below its 52-week high.
The price is 11% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$4.4B → $4.5B (+2.6%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+11.2% → +11.5% a year (+0.4 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.00 → $2.22 (+11.1%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$126M → $182M (+44.3%)held up
- Operating margin4.0% → 4.1% (+0.2 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.2% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+0.5% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −11%, sector median +9% since Oct 2changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −11%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +11% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 42.6× at the high → 26.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 26, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 25, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($116.42, Oct 2) the price assumed about 21%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($57.27, Nov 20) about 15%; today about 12%. The last 3 years delivered 17%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 17%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $116.42Oct 2 | $57.27Nov 20 | $103.23 |
| Implied growth | +21% | +15% | +12% |
| P/E | 58.3× | 35.2× | 46.5× |
| P/FCF | 42.6× | 30.3× | 26.3× |
| EV/Sales | 1.4× | 0.8× | 1.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CHEF’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CHEF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.51
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
How it ranks
Where CHEF stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate18% · price below our base caseTop 35%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.8% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 48%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.2% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 22%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+12% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 43%of 1,814
- Operating margin4.1% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 23%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital10% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 50%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $121.31 · FCF value $91.76
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 16.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.93 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 25, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net debt $564M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $121.31, 18% above the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 109% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 27% to $1.68 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 12% to $4.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 46.5× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 21.6×, above the 12.3× median for the 230 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 4.1%, below the 11% median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.8% over 12 months, above the −1.7% median for the 310 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 46.5 · FCF yield 3.8% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 46.5×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 26.3×
- FCF yield
- 3.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 21.6×
- Price / sales
- 1.06×
- Price / book
- 6.94×
- Market cap
- $4.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +16.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.33
- EPS growth, last FY
- +27.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $102M
- Net income growth
- +37%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 24.7%
- Operating margin
- 4.1%
- Net margin
- 2.3%
- FCF margin
- 4.0%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $165M
- Total debt
- $729M
- Net cash
- −$564M
- Debt / equity
- 1.06×
- Interest coverage
- 4.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $182M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +109%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $10M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $29M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 25, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 25, 2026. From The Chefs' Warehouse’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin25%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $103.23
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$57.27−44.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$103.23you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$116.42+12.8%
- Fair value est.base case$121.31+17.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days −2.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CHEF is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on The Chefs' Warehouse in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Food Distributors
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.