QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Containers/Packaging
Advanced Drainage Systems WMS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 23% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $113.18−16%
- Market Value
- $129.11price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.31
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $135.43
- Fair value est.base case$113.18−16.4%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$125.19−7.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 5$129.11−4.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$135.43you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$175.38+29.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WMS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WMS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.31
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.46
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.34
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.3% (price / FCF 19.0×): $550M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 26% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 16%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $3.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 18% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $113.18, 16% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 21 points in two fiscal years, to 23% in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 20.3% in FY2026 from 25.5% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt rose 27% to $1.6B from FY2024 to FY2026.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $1.89): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Advanced Drainage Systems in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Containers/Packaging
All fundamentals
P/E 23.1 · FCF yield 5.3% · ROE 26%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 19.0×
- FCF yield
- 5.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.3×
- Price / sales
- 3.24×
- Price / book
- 5.82×
- Market cap
- $10.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $11.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.2%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.79
- EPS growth, last FY
- −5.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $451M
- Net income growth
- +4%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 38.6%
- Operating margin
- 20.7%
- Net margin
- 14.0%
- FCF margin
- 17.1%
- Return on equity
- 26%
- Return on invested capital
- 16%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $162M
- Total debt
- $1.6B
- Net cash
- −$1.5B
- Debt / equity
- 0.90×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $550M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +18%
- Dividend yield
- 0.55%$57M paid
- Payout ratio
- 13%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $325M3.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $37M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Advanced Drainage Systems’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $113.18 · MV $129.11 · FCF value $108.48
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.2% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.14 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $1.5B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +3.9%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +21%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin39%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital19%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+21%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.7×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.89
- Year-ago EPS$1.97
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
WMS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.