QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Entertainment & recreation
Genius Sports GENI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 43% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 44% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 31%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $7.82+20%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −43%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.58
52-week range 35% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $6.52Fair value est. $7.82
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($3.92, Apr 10) about 3%; today about 12%. The last 3 years delivered 25%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 25%/yr (revenue)
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $3.92Apr 10 | $6.52 |
| Implied growth | +3% | +12% |
| P/FCF | 15.5× | 25.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GENI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GENI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.58
- Volatility
- 74% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.17
How it ranks
Where GENI stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate20% · price below our base caseTop 35%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield3.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 50%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+31% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 15%of 2,184
- Operating margin−23% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 5%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $7.82
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 25.2% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.25 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 20-F filed Mar 17, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $7.82, 20% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 25% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 31% to $669M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 23.0% in FY2025 from 16.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $112M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −23% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −22.6% in FY2025 from −18.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of −17%, below the 15% median for the 409 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; debt load unclear or high.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 3.9% · ROE -17% · Sales +31%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 25.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.48×
- Price / book
- 2.29×
- Market cap
- $1.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $669M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +31.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +25.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.44
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$112M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 23.0%
- Operating margin
- −22.6%
- Net margin
- −16.7%
- FCF margin
- 9.6%
- Return on equity
- −17%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $281M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $65M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −7%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $149M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Genius Sports’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales +65%
- Gross margin27%
- Operating margin−12%
- Return on invested capital−6%
- Return on equity−26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+65%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $6.52
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$3.92−39.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$6.52you are here
- Fair value est.base case$7.82+19.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$11.37+74.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days 0.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0
- Year-ago EPS($0.11)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
GENI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Genius Sports in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.