QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Steel
Gerdau GGB
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.18
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for GGB: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 84% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 38% in FY2022), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GGB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.18
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.41
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.33
How it ranks
Where GGB stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield2.6% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 33%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 28%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+4.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 26%of 1,814
- Operating margin5.4% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 27%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.5% ($234M paid over 12 months, 93% of earnings).
ValuationPrice / book of 0.9×, below the 3.4× median for the 237 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 5.4% in FY2025 from 15.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 77% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.8× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 13 points in two fiscal years, to 3% in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 11.4% in FY2025 from 16.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
All fundamentals
P/E 36.4 · FCF yield 2.6% · ROE 2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 36.4×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 38.7×
- FCF yield
- 2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.72×
- Price / book
- 0.94×
- Market cap
- $9.2Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $12.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −5.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- −28.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $253M
- Net income growth
- −70%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 11.4%
- Operating margin
- 5.4%
- Net margin
- 2.0%
- FCF margin
- 1.9%
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.1B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 1.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $238M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −77%
- Dividend yield
- 2.55%$234M paid
- Payout ratio
- 93%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $213M2.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Gerdau’s SEC filings, reported in BRL and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $2.9B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin15%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital49%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $4.64
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$3.26−29.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$4.64you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$5.24+12.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days −2.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
GGB is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Gerdau in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Steel
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.