QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Containers/Packaging
Graphic Packaging Holding Company GPK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 45% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 3% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $9.62price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −45%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.80
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 45% below its 52-week high (Nov 4), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +4.0 pts, free cash flow −$275M → $189M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) +11.9% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +4.0 pts, free cash flow −$275M → $189M, turned positive, net cash (cash minus debt) +11.9% of market cap since the high), others slipped (earnings per share −62.4%, operating margin −4.5 pts). The price is 45% below its 52-week high.
The price is 45% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −62.4%, operating margin −4.5 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$8.6B → $8.6B (+0.3%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate−3.9% → 0.0% a year (+4.0 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.72 → $0.65 (−62.4%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$275M → $189M, turned positiveheld up
- Operating margin10.3% → 5.8% (−4.5 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding+0.8% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+11.9% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −45%, sector median +15% since Nov 4changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −45%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −31% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 9.9× at the high → 14.4× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($8.24, Oct 12) about −1%; today about 2%. The last 3 years delivered −3%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −3%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $17.05Nov 4 | $8.24Oct 12 | $9.33 |
| Implied growth | n/a | −1% | +2% |
| P/E | 9.9× | 12.6× | 14.4× |
| P/FCF | — | 12.9× | 14.8× |
| EV/Sales | 1.2× | 0.9× | 0.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for GPK: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 76% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 48% in FY2022), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GPK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.80
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.07
How it ranks
Where GPK stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield6.8% · free cash flow vs market capTop 25%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield6.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 19%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+0% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 13%of 1,814
- Operating margin5.8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 29%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital4.5% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 20%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $9.62
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.8% (price / FCF 14.8×): $189M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 14.4× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.6% ($130M paid over 12 months, 67% of earnings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 7.7×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ValuationTrades 3.0% below its Market Value of $9.62, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $5.3B, 191% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.0× over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 31% to $1.48 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 13 points in two fiscal years, to 13% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 4.8× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 14.4 · FCF yield 6.8% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.4×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 14.8×
- FCF yield
- 6.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.7×
- Price / sales
- 0.32×
- Price / book
- 0.87×
- Market cap
- $2.8Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $8.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.66
- EPS growth, last FY
- −31.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $194M
- Net income growth
- −64%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 15.5%
- Operating margin
- 5.8%
- Net margin
- 2.2%
- FCF margin
- 2.2%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $205M
- Total debt
- $5.6B
- Net cash
- −$5.3B
- Debt / equity
- 1.72×
- Interest coverage
- 2.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $189M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 4.64%$130M paid
- Payout ratio
- 67%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $40M1.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $21M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Graphic Packaging Holding Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales −1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−1%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $9.33
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$8.24−11.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$9.33you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$9.62+3.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$17.05+82.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days +6.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.23
- Year-ago EPS$0.58
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
GPK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Graphic Packaging Holding Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Containers/Packaging
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.