QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Drugstores
Guardian Pharmacy Services GRDN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 17% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 4% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $45.96+15%
- Market Value
- $41.71price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.53
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GRDN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GRDN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.53
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
How it ranks
Where GRDN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate15% · price below our base caseTop 36%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.7% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 47%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+10% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 47%of 1,814
- Operating margin5.8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 29%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $45.96 · MV $41.71 · FCF value $24.00
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.9% a year FY24–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.49 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $45.96, 15% above the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 113% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 18% a year from FY2024 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 30% over the last 12 months.
ValuationTrades 4.1% below its Market Value of $41.71, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 38.4× vs a 22.1× median for the 51 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.7%, below the 5.7% median for the 56 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 22%, below the 39% median for the 57 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 9.8×, above the 2.9× median for the 54 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $0.28): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 38.4 · FCF yield 3.7% · ROE 30%
Valuation
- P/E
- 38.4×Consumer Staples median 22.1×
- Price / FCF
- 26.9×
- FCF yield
- 3.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.73×
- Price / book
- 9.83×
- Market cap
- $2.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.9%/yrfrom FY2024
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $66M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 21.6%
- Operating margin
- 5.8%
- Net margin
- 4.5%
- FCF margin
- 6.4%
- Return on equity
- 30%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $90M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 135.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $94M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +113%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $10M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Guardian Pharmacy Services’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin22%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital21%
- Return on equity30%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $40.00
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$27.03−32.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$40.00you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$41.71+4.3%
- Fair value est.base case$45.96+14.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$48.00+20.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days +2.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.28
- Year-ago EPS$0.19
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
GRDN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Guardian Pharmacy Services in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Staples
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.