QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Containers/Packaging
Kimberly-Clark KMB
Not in a dip by our rules: 10% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $86.53−20%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.04
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $107.94
- Fair value est.base case$86.53−19.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$93.05−13.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$107.94you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$120.21+11.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KMB’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KMB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.04
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.02
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.13
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.7% ($1.7B paid over 12 months, 86% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 23%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.1% (price / FCF 19.8×): $1.8B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 14.3% in FY2025 from 11.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $86.53, 20% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt is 3.7× shareholders’ equity.
GrowthSales shrank 7% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 20% to $6.07 in FY2025.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $1.69): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Kimberly-Clark in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Containers/Packaging
All fundamentals
P/E 18.4 · FCF yield 5.1% · ROE 129%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.4×3-yr-end avg 19.1× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 19.8×
- FCF yield
- 5.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.8×
- Price / sales
- 2.17×
- Price / book
- 20.56×
- Market cap
- $36.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $41.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $16.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −6.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- −19.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Net income growth
- −20%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 36.8%
- Operating margin
- 15.2%
- Net margin
- 11.8%
- FCF margin
- 11.0%
- Return on equity
- 129%
- Return on invested capital
- 23%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $956M
- Total debt
- $6.5B
- Net cash
- −$5.5B
- Debt / equity
- 3.70×
- Interest coverage
- 10.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.8B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −13%
- Dividend yield
- 4.67%$1.7B paid
- Payout ratio
- 86%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $21M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- 0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $131M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Kimberly-Clark’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $86.53 · FCF value $134.19
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -6.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.46 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days −2.0%
The business
FCF $1.8B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin37%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital24%
- Return on equity128%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.7×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.69
- Year-ago EPS$1.82
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when KMB fires a reversal signal
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