QualityDipStocks / Technology · Computer Manufacturing
HP HPQ
On dip watch: 19% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 10% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $66.34+131%
- Market Value
- $31.91price −10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −19%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.66
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $28.78
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$18.20−36.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$28.78you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 26$31.91+10.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$35.48+23.3%
- Fair value est.base case$66.34+130.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HPQ’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HPQ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.66
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.18
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 14.5% (price / FCF 6.9×): $3.9B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $66.34, 131% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 10.9× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 58%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationTrades 9.8% below its Market Value of $31.91, the average price paid since the Aug 26 filing.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 20%, below the 59% median for the 151 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 5.7% in the last fiscal year, below the 18% median for the 118 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 5.4%, below the 16% median for the 153 Technology companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on HP in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Computer Manufacturing
All fundamentals
P/E 10.9 · FCF yield 14.5% · Sales +8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.9×3-yr-end avg 10.4× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 6.9×
- FCF yield
- 14.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.6×
- Price / sales
- 0.45×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $26.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $31.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $59.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −4.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.62
- EPS growth, last FY
- −5.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.5B
- Net income growth
- −7%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 19.9%
- Operating margin
- 5.4%
- Net margin
- 4.1%
- FCF margin
- 6.6%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 58%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.2B
- Total debt
- $9.2B
- Net cash
- −$5.0B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 8.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +37%
- Dividend yield
- 4.10%$1.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 45%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.2B4.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $479M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From HP’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $66.34 · MV $31.91 · FCF value $97.27
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -4.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.19 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 27, 2026. Net debt $5.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 37 · 5 days −14.4%
The business
FCF $3.9B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield13.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital34%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when HPQ fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on HPQ or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.