QualityDipStocks / Technology · Computer Manufacturing
Dell Technologies DELL
In a deep dip: 28% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 19% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $214.43−49%
- Market Value
- $524.45price −19%
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.51
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $424.30
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$111.07−73.8%
- Fair value est.base case$214.43−49.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$424.30you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 15$524.45+23.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$588.40+38.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.5%; bull = 8.5% and 5.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DELL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DELL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.51
- Volatility
- 77% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.42
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.46
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 49% to $151B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 76% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 55%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationTrades 19.1% below its Market Value of $524.45, the average price paid since the Sep 15 filing.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 28% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $214.43, 49% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 24.3× is 51% above its own average of 16.1× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 20.0% in FY2026 from 23.8% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 3.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 11% median for the 162 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.51 vs the S&P 500 and 77% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Dell Technologies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Computer Manufacturing
All fundamentals
P/E 24.3 · FCF yield 3.1% · Sales +49%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.3×3-yr-end avg 16.1× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 32.3×
- FCF yield
- 3.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.3×
- Price / sales
- 1.83×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $277Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $300B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $151B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +49.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.5%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $17.19
- EPS growth, last FY
- +36.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $11.4B
- Net income growth
- +135%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 19.8%
- Operating margin
- 9.4%
- Net margin
- 7.5%
- FCF margin
- 5.7%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 55%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $11.6B
- Total debt
- $34.5B
- Net cash
- −$22.9B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 8.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $8.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +76%
- Dividend yield
- 0.57%$1.6B paid
- Payout ratio
- 14%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $8.5B3.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $727M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Dell Technologies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $214.43 · MV $524.45 · FCF value $300.36
Assumes 3.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.5% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $13.13 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 8, 2026. Net debt $22.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 36 · 5 days −7.0%
The business
FCF $8.6B · Sales +58%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$8.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital35%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+58%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when DELL fires a reversal signal
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