QualityDipStocks / Technology · Computer Manufacturing
Super Micro Computer SMCI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 37% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 4% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $34.38price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −37%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.89
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $32.95
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$20.53−37.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$32.95you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$34.38+4.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$51.96+57.7%
Fair value estimate
No estimate for SMCI: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SMCI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 7.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.89
- Volatility
- 93% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.54
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.56
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 78% to $39.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 94% to $3.26 in FY2026.
GrowthSales compounded 76% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ValuationP/E of 10.3× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 4.1% below its Market Value of $34.38, the average price paid since the Oct 20 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$7.0B over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
Cash returnsShare count up 11.3% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of −31%, below the 3.1% median for the 161 Technology companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.89 vs the S&P 500 and 93% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Super Micro Computer in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Computer Manufacturing
All fundamentals
P/E 10.3 · FCF yield -30.8% · ROE 21%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.3×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −30.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.58×
- Price / book
- 1.56×
- Market cap
- $22.6Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $39.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +77.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +76.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.26
- EPS growth, last FY
- +94.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.2B
- Net income growth
- +109%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 10.8%
- Operating margin
- 7.1%
- Net margin
- 5.6%
- FCF margin
- −17.8%
- Return on equity
- 21%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $7.5B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 14.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$7.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +11.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $412M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Super Micro Computer’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $34.38
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days 0.0%
The business
FCF $-7.0B · Sales +93%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$7.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield−30.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin−18%
- Gross margin11%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+93%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.4×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.04
- Year-ago EPS$0.26
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
SMCI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.