QualityDipStocks / Technology · Computer Manufacturing
International Business Machines IBM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $253.65−2%
- Market Value
- $253.88price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.82
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $257.81
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$205.77−20.2%
- Fair value est.base case$253.65−1.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$253.88−1.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$257.81you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$329.23+27.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.7%; bull = 8.5% and 5.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, IBM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much IBM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.82
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.11
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 74% to $11.17 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 22.0× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 35% over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.0% (price / FCF 16.8×): $14.7B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.6% ($6.3B paid over 12 months, 57% of earnings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 2.0×, above the 0.4× median for the 88 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 6.8% over the last 12 months, below the 18% median for the 163 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 3.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 11% median for the 162 Technology companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on International Business Machines in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Computer Manufacturing
All fundamentals
P/E 22.0 · FCF yield 6.0% · ROE 35%
Valuation
- P/E
- 22.0×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 16.8×
- FCF yield
- 6.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.52×
- Price / book
- 6.92×
- Market cap
- $246Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $307B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $69.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.75
- EPS growth, last FY
- +73.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $11.2B
- Net income growth
- +41%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 58.0%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 16.0%
- FCF margin
- 21.0%
- Return on equity
- 35%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $9.2B
- Total debt
- $70.8B
- Net cash
- −$61.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.99×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $14.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +18%
- Dividend yield
- 2.58%$6.3B paid
- Payout ratio
- 57%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $2.0B
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From International Business Machines’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $253.65 · MV $253.88 · FCF value $370.19
Assumes 3.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $15.37 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026. Net debt $54.6B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 71 · 5 days +1.7%
The business
FCF $14.0B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$14.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin58%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity34%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
IBM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.